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The global TV market has entered a stable period

日期:2015-05-15   类型:Industry information

In 2014, the total number of TV shipments worldwide was 230 million, up 3% from 2013. Except for the markets in Chinese Mainland and Eastern Europe, the overall TV shipments in other regions have achieved positive growth. In these two regions, the negative growth of Eastern Europe is mainly affected by the overall currency depreciation and economic downturn of the Russian dominated Eastern European countries; In Chinese Mainland, the government stimulus plan for several consecutive years was completely withdrawn in the second half of 2013, which affected the growth of TV demand in 2014 in the short term. We expect that in the next few years, the overall demand for TV in the world will maintain a single digit growth, with an overall shipment of about 250 million sets. Emerging markets and regions have experienced a period of rapid growth, while the future demand of developed countries and regions will mainly be the demand for replacement.


In terms of technology, traditional CRTs and plasma TVs will all disappear from the market this year, while emerging OLED TVs will still have less than 1 million units shipped in 2015 due to technical and cost problems; On the one hand, the old technology has exited, and on the other hand, the emerging technology has not yet emerged. In 2015 and the following years, LCD TV will dominate the global TV market. In general, as the largest area consumption application of TFT LCD in the world, the growth of TV demand is extremely limited, and the main growth will mainly depend on the growth of average size. In the major regions of the world, the growth trend of LCD TV consumption size has been taking place all the time. Roughly, the average size increases by one inch every year. Due to the huge consumption base, the annual growth of one inch will consume the full capacity of an eight generation line with 90000 films per month.


The demand of developed countries and regions, including Japan, North America and Europe, will remain stable in the coming years; However, the demand power of flat TV in developing countries is also tending to be flat. It is worth noting that although the LCD TV market around the world shows an obvious trend of large size, the demand in major emerging countries is still dominated by small size: in 2014, 30 "- 39" shipments in the Brazilian market accounted for 46%; India's 20 "- 29" shipments accounted for 54%, and 32 "LCD TV shipments accounted for 33%; LCD TVs below 32 "in the Russian market account for 56%. The proportion of small size LCD TVs shipped in emerging markets remains high, and the main factor is still limited by the lack of purchasing power; With the continuous growth of the purchasing power of these consumers, there is a huge space for the development of large TV sets in the future.


In particular, except for Japan and China, the government has implemented consumption stimulus policies in the past and achieved some results. In order to promote the process of digital transformation and stimulate consumption, the Mexican government has also launched a subsidy plan with a total budget of more than 10 million units; In addition, according to what we have learned, the governments of Thailand and India may push forward relevant subsidy measures in, which is expected to stimulate more flat screen TV consumption in emerging markets.


The evolution of brand competition pattern continues, and Japanese brands continue to weaken, especially in European and American markets; Korean factories continue to expand their advantages in markets other than China and Japan; The main brand businesses of China's first tier brand manufacturers are concentrated in China's local market, and the pace of globalization is still relatively slow; On the contrary, many second tier and third tier brand manufacturers have achieved some success in Europe, America and emerging markets, relying on the advantages of channels and costs, and have made considerable progress in the OEM business.


Technological innovation is still the most important means to promote the growth of TV demand, constantly attracting consumers to replace and buy new TVs equipped with updated technology. However, over time, quite a number of consumers have found that new TV purchases and even stock TV specifications have become very rich, and the driving force of technology seems to become increasingly weak, driving demand growth into a single price decline. In terms of the overall average price of LCD TVs, the average price of LCD TVs in 2014 was US $422, a decrease of more than 5% compared with US $446 in 2013. Although the flat screen TV specifications have been continuously strengthened, it still cannot prevent the average price from falling. However, the average unit price of all technical TVs decreases by one digit every year. Obviously, the upgrade of panel or system specifications has become more and more difficult to attract consumers, leaving only the weapon of price.


However, price is a weapon of considerable lethality in newly purchased emerging markets, but it has no significant impact on the markets of developed countries and regions that focus on aircraft replacement. As a result, TV brand manufacturers began to focus on content to promote the development of smart TV five years ago.


By 2014, the penetration rate of smart TV in the world had exceeded 45%. Among them, the penetration rate of China's smart TV has reached 60%. After a long period of time, major brand manufacturers have made many attempts in operating system, content input, human-computer interaction and other aspects of smart TV, but the utilization rate of consumers is still at a low level.


First of all, on the operating system side, because Chinese manufacturers use Android's open system to quickly drive the sales of smart TVs. Unlike Chinese brand manufacturers, which move towards Android in an all-round way, Japanese and Korean manufacturers generally focus on relatively closed operating systems. This year, it is more obvious that Samsung's main smart TVs this year are mainly equipped with its own Tizen system, while LGE is moving towards WebOS. The openness of the operating system is greatly related to the content imported independently by consumers and the openness of third-party content import, and will also affect the profit model of smart TV manufacturers. However, in the long run, due to the diversity of content, a relatively open intelligent TV operating system will be the development direction of intelligent TV in the future.


The second is human-computer interaction interface. More content requires a new human-computer interaction interface. Just as mobile phones have developed from functional phones to the era of smart phones, touch has become the most direct and convenient interaction mode for smart phones. However, due to the difference in viewing distance and experience mode, smart TV cannot directly transplant the touch mode to TV. As a result, brand manufacturers have tried a variety of interaction methods in the past few years, including more advanced remote control, voice, gesture, multi screen interaction and other control methods. However, the facts have proved that these so-called new interaction modes cannot replace the traditional remote control interaction modes, and the development of new interaction modes still has a long way to go.


After seeking a more consumer friendly interaction mode, the core is actually to return to the content itself. In the future, there is little room for the continuous improvement of smart TV hardware equipment, or the potential to bring greater value to consumers. It still requires more attractive content and experience to really pull users back to the TV screen, which may be the right direction for the development of smart TV in the future.

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